Tuesday, March 6, 2012

The Next Moneyball: What is it and When is it Coming?

Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane
Tonight I watched a movie based upon one of the all-time great stories about the business of professional sports and what it takes to beat the competition not only on the field, but in the front office. Many people have heard about Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics concept of "Moneyball", or Sabermetrics, and how it changed the game of baseball. When you watch the movie (I highly recommend the book over the movie) you can't help but realize that sports are just like business; seeing a trend before it happens. That is exactly what Billy Beane and Peter Brand did and the results were confusing to the general public to say the least. How could you possibly beat teams that had quadruple the amount of payroll? The answer is simple; beat them in a way that has yet to be discovered.


When Michael Lewis published the book Moneyball in 2003, he wrote exactly what the state of baseball is in the title but is left out by many; Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. That is exactly what baseball is, unfair. Just ask the general managers of teams like the Kansas City Royals ($36.1 million), the Pittsburgh Pirates ($46 million), or the Cleveland Indians ($49.2 million). When you compare these teams to the likes of the New York Yankees ($201.7 million), the Philadelphia Phillies ($173 million), and the Boston Red Sox ($161.4 million), the business of baseball seems laughable. Yet every year we end up with teams in the playoffs like the Tampa Bay Rays ($41.9 million) and the Arizona Diamondbacks ($53.6 million). How do they do it? They find a way to beat the top payroll teams in some other area. Their front office out smarts the large market teams' front offices and put a winner on the field with a quarter of the payroll and what many would say is inferior talent. This is what Billy Beane did, and it is what every small market team is trying to do every day they step foot into their office.

This topic came about from a comment from one of my readers who was asking about my feelings on the current payroll system that Major League Baseball operates under. If you look at all the other leagues, baseball is by far the most "unfair" system in professional sports. The National Football League operates under a salary cap system that will require teams in the 2012 season to operate somewhere in between $120 and $130 million (not set in stone yet). This obviously adds to a higher level of competition and allows small market teams to compete with large markets on any given Sunday. Baseball has no such luck, and odds are that we may never see a structure similar to the NFL. That is just the way it is though, and small market general managers are well aware of the system in place and what they are up against every season and off-season.

My reader brought forth the specific examples that the Cleveland Indians have been faced with in previous years with the trading of C.C. Sabathia and Victor Martinez. Both are perennial all-star ball players and rightfully deserve to be paid high dollar for their services year in and year out. How is a small market team expected to afford their salaries when large market teams can offer twice the money? Simply, they can't and call it unfair if you desire, but it's the nature of beast that is Major League Baseball. The key is what you get in return for these players though. The Indians and Mark Shapiro played the situation very well by trading these players in contract years for a premium. Just as Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics figured out a way to replace Johnny Damon, Jason Isringhausen, and Jason Giambi, the Indians tried to find a way to beat the big boys. In the Sabathia deal the Indians acquired both Michael Brantley and Matt LaPorta. Granted LaPorta hasn't panned out like Tribe fans had hoped, but he is still a solid utility play, and Brantley is an absolute steal. He is the starting left fielder/center fielder for the foreseeable future and is making 54.5 times LESS than Sabathia ($23 million vs $421,800)! Brantley also accounted for over 8% of the Indians offense in 2011, the numbers don't lie. In the Martinez deal, the Indians received their ace, Justin Masterson, who accounts for over 15% of the Indians' pitching performance and is making 25.6 times LESS than Martinez ($12 million vs $468,400). Martinez is immensely under-performing and only producing 7% of the Tigers' offense while making up a little over 11% of their payroll. In my opinion, the Indians win big here and proof shows in their performance early last year and the two titles their Triple-A affiliate, the Columbus Clippers, have garnered the last two seasons.

Everyone has heard the quote, "No one ever said life was fair", and it appears that baseball has taken that quote to heart. Small market teams have no choice but to let stars go to larger markets, but that doesn't mean their fans don't expect them to compete. The nature of sports is that no matter what adversity you face, you compete to be the best and fight until the end. Small market teams like the Cleveland Indians and my favorite, the Cincinnati Reds, have to find ways to build advantages through any way possible. The Indians have a bright future and no doubt will have to part ways with more superstars, but that should never deter them from believing that they will be hoisting the trophy come late October. My Reds have a superstar by the name of Joey Votto who's contract is up after two seasons and after an off-season that saw the two largest first baseman contracts EVER get paid out, there is no doubt that he too will soon be headed to the Bronx or Boston. You better believe though that my expectations for the Reds will not taper off and I fully expect that the front office has a plan in place if and when Votto leaves. No fan wants to see their favorite player leave, but in the interest of the team and organization as a whole, it has to happen and therefore I ask; who is going to find a way to reinvent the game again? Who will decide building for the future isn't enough? Who will find a way to pay less and get more again?

The business of baseball is a mean beast and is not easily tamed, but it can be done. Small market fans should never lose hope, because there are more Billy Beane's out there, and they are coming. Prepare yourself and trust in your front office, because your team may just break that twenty game win streak record set by Beane's Athletics in 2002 in the near future.

No comments:

Post a Comment