Top 10 NFL Free Agents of 2012

Who will make a big splash first on Tuesday?

The day is finally upon us; the beginning of free agency and the new league year in the National Football League. At 4pm this afternoon, a record amount of free agents (500+) hit the market and they carry arguably the most talent ever seen in a single free agency class. This being the first year under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement between the NFL and the NFL Players Association, many times have a lot of salary cap space and with the talent available in free agency, it appears that this will be an off-season to remember. Just as Falcons' owner Arthur Blank put it last year, it is going to be "free agency on steroids". With the official salary cap number set at $120.6 million per year, teams can now start to plan how they are going to fill cap space, or in some cases get below the cap. Below is a chart that I have built that shows the cap space for every team, ranked 1 to 32 in order of most space, to least:

This will obviously play a big role in decisions in free agency as many teams will be restricted, and others will have plenty of money to make a lot of noise come 4 o'clock today. This is such an exciting time for football and I have ranked my top 10 NFL free agents based on many factors, predicted where they are going, and why they are going to end up there.


1. Peyton Manning, Quarterback


2011 Team: Indianapolis Colts
Potential Fits: Arizona Cardinals, Washington Redskins, Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins
My Prediction: Denver Broncos
Breakdown: Manning tops my list as he may is by far the most wanted free agent since Reggie White hit the market in 1993. There has been plenty of talk from almost half of the teams in the NFL, and as much as I had originally thought Miami would be the spot for Manning, it seems to me like it will be Denver. When you look at the amount of cap space that Denver has ($44.7 million), they have the money to only bring in Manning, but they also have the money to surround him with the talent necessary to win NOW. John Elway and Manning's relationship very solid and Elway knows what it takes to win the whole thing after the age of 35 (did it twice). Being able to bring in his own weapons (Reggie Wayne/Dallas Clark), the promise from the Broncos' front office to trade Tim Tebow, getting top dollar, a great young defense, and a top ten offensive line will all be big factors in Manning choosing to finish his career as a Denver Bronco.


2. Mario Williams, Defensive End/Outside Linebacker

2011 Team: Houston Texans
Potential Fits: New England Patriots, Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears
My Prediction: Atlanta Falcons
Breakdown: Mario Williams would usually be the talk of every sports network and football analyst as we head into free agency, but there happens to be a 4-time MVP who just got released. Williams is the exact definition of a physical "freak". The guy is 6'6'' and 285 pounds, runs a 4.7 40 yard dash, is in the prime of his career, and has 53 sacks in a little over five seasons including injuries (10.6 sacks a year). Williams can play either a 3-4 outside linebacker, or be a dominating force in a 4-3 defense off of the edge. When looking at potential fits, include any team that needs even the slightest help in pass rush. I believe strongly he will end up in Atlanta for large dollars mainly because the leading pass rusher for the Falcons, John Abraham, is also a free agent and testing the market, and enough space to work out a long-term deal. If you remember, last year the Falcons offered current Panthers' defensive end Charles Johnson a huge deal and that was with Abraham still on the roster. Looking to fill a void at defensive end and trying to improve a defense that may be the weak link on a Super Bowl caliber team, I see the Falcons and Mario Williams working out a deal that lands the All-Pro in Atlanta.

3. Carl Nicks, Guard

2011 Team: New Orleans Saints
Potential Fits: New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs
My Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
Breakdown: The Dallas Cowboys had the 19th best offensive line in 2011 and allowed the 10th most hits on quarterback. There have been worries about the offensive line since the end of the lockout last summer and if there is any move the Cowboys should make it is this. Carl Nicks is the arguably the most dominant guard in the NFL right now, especially in the run game. He will come with a hefty price tag, but Jerry Jones will find a way to make it work. If the Cowboys want to make a Super Bowl run, it starts up front and they must improve. I wouldn't count out the Chiefs here as they need a lot of help as well, and have a lot of cash to fork up.

4. Vincent Jackson, Wide Receiver

2011 Team: San Diego Chargers
Potential Fits: San Francisco 49ers, San Diego Chargers, Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins
My Prediction: Chicago Bears
Breakdown: Vincent Jackson is no doubt the number one receiver in this free agent class and he will get paid like it. It really comes down to three teams for Jackson; Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Washington. All these teams are in extreme need of a big time receiver and although there have been rumors that Tampa Bay is the front runner, I don't exactly see that happening. Jackson has been stuck on an underachieving team in San Diego for six years and that is exactly what Tampa Bay is. Chicago is on the cusp of being a Super Bowl team and he would be playing with Jay Cutler, a quarterback who can throw the deep ball and take advantage of Jackson's best skills. Money would not be an issue for Chicago to get Jackson and based on the news that Washington may be losing another $36 million in salary cap as punishment from the NFL, it may become a two team race down the stretch.

5. Brandon Carr, Cornerback

2011 Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Potential Fits: Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Cincinnati Bengals

My Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
Breakdown: Brandon Carr may be one of the more underrated players in free agency this year. He was released last month by the Kansas City Chiefs due to the signing of Stanford Routt. Playing opposite of Brandon Flowers for the last three seasons, many people did not give Carr the respect he may have deserved. The Chiefs ranked sixth in pass defense last year and that is with Eric Berry out all year, and it takes two corners to shut down a team. The Bengals are seeking depth at corner with the loss of Adam Jones and still trying to recover from losing Jonathan Joseph to the Texans last year. With $50 million in cap space and the need, I would expect nothing less than the Bengals to be in pursuit of the best corner on the market.

6. Cortland Finnegan, Cornerback

2011 Team: Tennessee Titans
Potential Fits: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears
My Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Breakdown: Cortland Finnegan is looking for one thing, and one thing only in this year's free agency, MONEY. That is the exact reason that he will end up in Tampa Bay, as they have plenty of salary cap space, and are desperate for corners with the potential of a Ronde Barber retirement and Aqib Talib suspension. There have been reports that Finnegan is expecting to be paid among the highest for cornerbacks in the NFL. I don't exactly see the worth of that for a guy that played against the slot all year last year for the Titans, and is known to have a severe attitude issues (i.e. Andre Johnson fight). Finnegan is a fit for Tampa Bay and will align well with the new attitude head coach Greg Schiano will bring with him from Rutgers.

7. Marques Colston, Wide Receiver

2011 Team: New Orleans Saints
Potential Fits: New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, Washington Redskins, St. Louis Rams
My Prediction: St. Louis Rams
Breakdown: There is no question that St. Louis has been looking to add a big wide receiver to add to their offense for the last two years and provide Sam Bradford with weapons on the outside. They brought in Brandon Lloyd last season, but with Bradford hurt, it is tough to say whether he is a fit (also a free agent), and his size is not ideal. I believe the solution can be found here with Colston and would add a new dimension to the offense. With a young quarterback in Sam Bradford, it is important to provide him with an ample amount of weapons and last year, even had he been healthy, he simply did not have enough. I feel he would add an element that would open things up for play-action with Stephen Jackson, something that hasn't happened in St. Louis. The Saints want to keep Colston, and Colston wants to stay, but they simply don't have the money to do so and his 449 receptions over six seasons will move elsewhere. They are also pushing hard to sign Carl Nicks and with only $5.2 million to work with, they have to make a choice. The 49ers were high on my list for Colston, but with the signing of Randy Moss yesterday, I just don't see them bringing in another big receiver like Colston. St. Louis could get a steal here and a lot of production for a lot of years, but if the Saints find the money, he will stay in New Orleans.

8. Ben Grubbs, Guard

2011 Team: Baltimore Ravens
Potential Fits: Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs

My Prediction: Baltimore Ravens
Breakdown: This may be the simplest prediction in my opinion, as Grubbs and the Ravens both would like to stay together. It is rumored that the Ravens have offered the guard a substantial contract and he may accept before the four o'clock deadline today. If the money is there, Grubbs already knows the offense and the Ravens are projected to be better than anywhere else he may end up. He knows the offense and is a leader in the locker room. Grubbs may just be testing the market to try and get comparable money to the contract that Carl Nicks is going to get. Ultimately, Ben Grubbs will still be a Raven in 2012.

9. Matt Flynn, Quarterback

2011 Team: Green Bay Packers
Potential Fits: Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks
My Prediction: Miami Dolphins or Seattle Seahawks
Breakdown: Flynn will be one of the most interesting free agents to watch due to the Peyton Manning Sweepstakes. Before the release of Manning from the Colts, Flynn was regarded as the number one quarterback in free agency and was set to earn the money that would come with that. Although Flynn has only started three games in his career, his future looks bright as he has learned under Aaron Rodgers. The reason I list two teams in my prediction is because if Peyton Manning does indeed end up in Denver, Flynn will reunite with his ex-offensive coordinator, Joe Philbin, the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. If Manning ends up in Miami, Flynn could easily end up with the General Manager that drafted him in Seattle. Seattle has a lot of salary cap space to add weapons around Flynn and an up and coming team.

10. Michael Bush, Running Back

2011 Team: Oakland Raiders
Potential Fits: Oakland Raiders, Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals
My Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals

Breakdown: I felt it necessary to include the top tailback in free agency in 2012 in my list and that man is the guy that has been playing second fiddle to Darren McFadden in Oakland. Michael Bush filled in extremely well last year after McFadden when down with an injury, rushing for 977 yards in only 9 starts. At 27 years of age, Bush probably has 3 solid seasons left in him and I think he ends up in Cincinnati. The Bengals will not be re-signing Cedric Benson and there has been speculation for months that the Bengals would make a push to get Bush. Although the odds seem to be increasing that the Bengals will have a shot at Trent Richardson in the draft, they will not have time to sit around to the draft to sign Bush. With the largest amount of salary cap space in the league, look for Michael Bush to be in the Bengals' backfield in 2012.